Reverse DCF
What growth does the market imply for NHPC?
Working backwards from the current price to find the FCF growth assumption baked in.
conservative
9.2% implied annual FCF growth
The market is pricing in below-GDP growth — very conservative assumption. If the company delivers anywhere near its historical rate, there is significant upside.
Current Price
₹81
Historical Growth
12.0%
FCF Yield
5.49%
Price / FCF
18.2x
Plain English
To justify today's price of $80.54, NHPC.NS needs to grow its free cash flow at 9.2% per year for the next 10 years. That is 2.8% slower than its historical growth rate of 12.0%. This looks achievable — the market is not pricing in heroic assumptions. There may be genuine upside if the company executes.
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Growth Scenarios
What the stock is worth at different growth assumptions
| Scenario | FCF Growth | Implied IV | MoS vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half implied | 4.6% | ₹44 | -46.0% |
| Implied | 9.2% | ₹81 | +0.3% |
| GDP rate | 10.0% | ₹89 | +10.3% |
| Historical | 12.0% | ₹111 | +38.2% |
At Historical Growth Rate
It would take 6 years for NHPC to organically grow into today's price assuming its historical FCF growth of 12.0%.
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Run Full Analysis →This is an analytical tool, not investment advice. Implied growth is a mathematical inversion of the DCF model and depends on WACC and terminal growth assumptions. YieldIQ is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser.