Reverse DCF
What growth does the market imply for ONGC?
Working backwards from the current price to find the FCF growth assumption baked in.
conservative
1.5% implied annual FCF growth
The market is pricing in below-GDP growth — very conservative assumption. If the company delivers anywhere near its historical rate, there is significant upside.
Current Price
₹283
Historical Growth
4.4%
FCF Yield
9.87%
Price / FCF
10.1x
Plain English
To justify today's price of $283.30, ONGC.NS needs to grow its free cash flow at 1.5% per year for the next 10 years. That is 2.9% slower than its historical growth rate of 4.4%. This looks achievable — the market is not pricing in heroic assumptions. There may be genuine upside if the company executes.
Adjust Assumptions
Growth Scenarios
What the stock is worth at different growth assumptions
| Scenario | FCF Growth | Implied IV | MoS vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half implied | 0.7% | ₹257 | -9.2% |
| Implied | 1.5% | ₹281 | -1.0% |
| Historical | 4.4% | ₹387 | +36.7% |
| GDP rate | 10.0% | ₹684 | +141.5% |
At Historical Growth Rate
It would take 3 years for ONGC to organically grow into today's price assuming its historical FCF growth of 4.4%.
See full DCF analysis
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Run Full Analysis →This is an analytical tool, not investment advice. Implied growth is a mathematical inversion of the DCF model and depends on WACC and terminal growth assumptions. YieldIQ is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser.