Reverse DCF
What growth does the market imply for BPCL?
Working backwards from the current price to find the FCF growth assumption baked in.
conservative
-7.9% implied annual FCF growth
The market is pricing in below-GDP growth — very conservative assumption. If the company delivers anywhere near its historical rate, there is significant upside.
Current Price
₹289
Historical Growth
3.1%
FCF Yield
25.35%
Price / FCF
3.9x
Plain English
To justify today's price of ₹289.40, BPCL.NS needs to grow its free cash flow at -7.9% per year for the next 10 years. That is 10.9% slower than its historical growth rate of 3.1%. This looks achievable — the market is not pricing in heroic assumptions. There may be genuine upside if the company executes.
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Growth Scenarios
What the stock is worth at different growth assumptions
| Scenario | FCF Growth | Implied IV | MoS vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied | -7.9% | ₹289 | +0.0% |
| Half implied | -3.9% | ₹413 | +42.6% |
| Historical | 3.1% | ₹755 | +160.8% |
| GDP rate | 10.0% | ₹1,340 | +363.0% |
At Historical Growth Rate
DCF horizon: 10 years. At 3.1% growth, the model values BPCL at ₹755, above today's ₹289.
See full DCF analysis
Bear/base/bull scenarios, sensitivity heatmap, reverse DCF, and more.
Run Full Analysis →This is an analytical tool, not investment advice. Implied growth is a mathematical inversion of the DCF model and depends on WACC and terminal growth assumptions. YieldIQ is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser.