Reverse DCF
What growth does the market imply for HGS?
Working backwards from the current price to find the FCF growth assumption baked in.
conservative
3.9% implied annual FCF growth
The market is pricing in below-GDP growth — very conservative assumption. If the company delivers anywhere near its historical rate, there is significant upside.
Current Price
₹414
Historical Growth
-2.9%
FCF Yield
11.09%
Price / FCF
9.0x
Plain English
To justify today's price of $413.80, HGS.NS needs to grow its free cash flow at 3.9% per year for the next 10 years. That is 6.8% faster than its historical growth rate of -2.9%. This looks achievable — the market is not pricing in heroic assumptions. There may be genuine upside if the company executes.
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Growth Scenarios
What the stock is worth at different growth assumptions
| Scenario | FCF Growth | Implied IV | MoS vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical | -2.9% | ₹150 | -63.8% |
| Half implied | 2.0% | ₹324 | -21.8% |
| Implied | 3.9% | ₹416 | +0.4% |
| GDP rate | 10.0% | ₹811 | +96.0% |
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Run Full Analysis →This is an analytical tool, not investment advice. Implied growth is a mathematical inversion of the DCF model and depends on WACC and terminal growth assumptions. YieldIQ is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser.