Reverse DCF
What growth does the market imply for ITC?
Working backwards from the current price to find the FCF growth assumption baked in.
conservative
7.6% implied annual FCF growth
The market is pricing in below-GDP growth — very conservative assumption. If the company delivers anywhere near its historical rate, there is significant upside.
Current Price
₹306
Historical Growth
13.3%
FCF Yield
4.54%
Price / FCF
22.0x
Plain English
To justify today's price of $305.50, ITC.NS needs to grow its free cash flow at 7.6% per year for the next 10 years. That is 5.7% slower than its historical growth rate of 13.3%. This looks achievable — the market is not pricing in heroic assumptions. There may be genuine upside if the company executes.
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Growth Scenarios
What the stock is worth at different growth assumptions
| Scenario | FCF Growth | Implied IV | MoS vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half implied | 3.8% | ₹225 | -26.4% |
| Implied | 7.6% | ₹303 | -0.9% |
| GDP rate | 10.0% | ₹365 | +19.4% |
| Historical | 13.3% | ₹474 | +55.1% |
At Historical Growth Rate
It would take 4 years for ITC to organically grow into today's price assuming its historical FCF growth of 13.3%.
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Run Full Analysis →This is an analytical tool, not investment advice. Implied growth is a mathematical inversion of the DCF model and depends on WACC and terminal growth assumptions. YieldIQ is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser.