Reverse DCF
What growth does the market imply for NATIONALUM?
Working backwards from the current price to find the FCF growth assumption baked in.
conservative
1.8% implied annual FCF growth
The market is pricing in below-GDP growth — very conservative assumption. If the company delivers anywhere near its historical rate, there is significant upside.
Current Price
₹382
Historical Growth
7.6%
FCF Yield
7.07%
Price / FCF
14.1x
Plain English
To justify today's price of ₹382.35, NATIONALUM.NS needs to grow its free cash flow at 1.8% per year for the next 10 years. That is 5.8% slower than its historical growth rate of 7.6%. This looks achievable — the market is not pricing in heroic assumptions. There may be genuine upside if the company executes.
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Growth Scenarios
What the stock is worth at different growth assumptions
| Scenario | FCF Growth | Implied IV | MoS vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half implied | 0.9% | ₹356 | -6.9% |
| Implied | 1.8% | ₹382 | +0.0% |
| Historical | 7.6% | ₹599 | +56.6% |
| GDP rate | 10.0% | ₹724 | +89.2% |
At Historical Growth Rate
DCF horizon: 10 years. At 7.6% growth, the model values NATIONALUM at ₹599, above today's ₹382.
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Bear/base/bull scenarios, sensitivity heatmap, reverse DCF, and more.
Run Full Analysis →This is an analytical tool, not investment advice. Implied growth is a mathematical inversion of the DCF model and depends on WACC and terminal growth assumptions. YieldIQ is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser.